• Maps at-risk downstream populations near dangerous water bodies using satellite images; shares updates with NDMA. PDMA, GB authorities• Cautions climate change is accelerating glacial melt; stresses that findings are warnings• Says El Nino may bring weaker monsoon, harsher heat waves, warmer winters
ISLAMABAD: The Space. Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) has identified 130 potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PGDLs) with possible risks to downstream settlements from glacial lake outburst floods (Glofs).
Suparco has been conducting regular surveillance of PGDLs using satellite imagery. sharing updates with relevant authorities, including the Ministry of Climate Change’s technical committee.
The most recent analysis is based on satellite images captured on May 31 and June 1, 2026.
Of the 130 identified glacial lakes considered potentially hazardous, only 24 are currently unfrozen and clearly observable. These lakes have been closely examined, with their surface extents measured to assess possible risks. The findings indicate that the majority of lakes remain frozen.
The accompanying satellite-based mapping highlighted both frozen. unfrozen lakes using distinct colour codes, providing a comprehensive overview of their spatial distribution.
The map also identified nearby populations that could be vulnerable in case of glofs, a recurring hazard in mountainous regions.
Population exposure has been estimated using a grid-based approach. which shows the number of people living within each 100-by-100-metre area surrounding the monitored lakes. This method offered insight into downstream communities that may face potential risks if a glacial lake were to burst.
Suparco noted that the identification of high-risk glacial lakes relied on data from provincial disaster management authorities, including the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA).
Earlier monitoring efforts were based on older inventories shared by these agencies.
A comparison between previous. updated datasets showed that 56 glacial lakes were common to both records, reflecting continuity in monitoring while also indicating changes in the overall inventory.
Authorities emphasised that such updates were crucial for improving preparedness and response strategies.
Suparco stressed that continued satellite monitoring was essential for early warning. risk mitigation, particularly as climate change accelerated glacial melting in northern Pakistan. Enhanced coordination between scientific institutions and disaster management bodies remained key to safeguarding vulnerable communities from potential Glofs events.
When contacted, the Ministry of Climate Change. Environmental Coordination said that the latest satellite-based assessment by Suparco highlighted Pakistan’s enhanced capability to scientifically monitor climate risks and strengthen preparedness against Glofs.
According to the assessment, 24 out of 130 potentially dangerous glacial lakes were currently unfrozen. under close observation, said Mohammad Saleem Shaikh, media spokesperson for the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination.
“This is not a cause for panic, but a call for preparedness. The fact that we are able to identify. continuously monitor these lakes demonstrates that Pakistan’s climate risk surveillance systems are becoming increasingly robust and science-driven,” said Mohammad Saleem Shaikh.
The official said that the ministry, in collaboration with Suparco, NDMA. provincial disaster management authorities, had strengthened hazard mapping, community-based adaptation programmes and early warning mechanisms in high-risk valleys. International cooperation with Italy, UNDP and scientific institutions has further enhanced Pakistan’s climate resilience and environmental monitoring capacity.
Meanwhile, Suparco has also warned of weaker-than-normal monsoon rainfall, an increased frequency of heat waves during spring. summer, droughts and warmer winters later in the year.
Suparco said Enso (El Nino Southern Oscillation) had entered its El Nino phase, with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures developing across the central. eastern Pacific Ocean.
This global climate phenomenon was expected to influence weather patterns across Pakistan during the 2026 monsoon and winter seasons.
Globally, this shifts rainfall patterns. Often leads to drought in Southeast Asia, Australia, India,. parts of Africa, while causing wetter conditions in the southern United States, East Africa, and parts of South America.
Published in Dawn, June 18th, 2026
Discussion
Sign in to join the thread, react, and share images.