With only six matches to go in the league stage of IPL 2026. four teams have a realistic chance of taking the last available playoff spot. Here are the scenarios for the four teams,. for Delhi Capitals (DC), whose abysmal net run rate means their campaign is almost over.
Rajasthan Royals Played: 13, Points: 14, NRR: 0.083 Remaining matches: MI (a)
Rajasthan Royals' (RR) victory against LSG means that their qualification chances rest entirely in their hands. If they beat Mumbai Indians (MI) on Sunday, they will qualify with 16 points regardless of other results. In fact, they can even harbour hopes of finishing in the top two if Gujarat Titans (GT). Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) lose, though the margins required make that quite unlikely. Currently, GT have a higher NRR than SRH,. for RR to exceed that is a tough ask: if GT lose to Chennai Super Kings (CSK) by 30 runs, RR need to beat MI by 50 runs. In other words. the sum of the margins of the two results needs to be 80 or more runs (assuming a first-innings score of 200).
If RR lose to MI, they will need other results going in their favour to qualify without NRR coming into play: Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) will have to lose to MI but beat DC, Punjab Kings (PBKS) will have to lose to Lucknow Super Giants (LSG),. CSK will have to lose to GT. If CSK. DC win their last match and RR lose theirs, then all three teams will be on 14, which will then mean an NRR battle among them if KKR and PBKS don't go beyond 13.
RR's victory against LSG also means the final playoff spot will not be decided before May 24. the last day of the league stage.
Punjab Kings Played: 13, Points: 13, NRR: 0.227 Remaining matches: LSG (a)
Not only do PBKS need to beat LSG in their last game, they also need to hope that RR lose to MI,. KKR don't get to 15 with a better NRR. If PBKS win on Saturday, RR lose their last game,. KKR win both of theirs, then PBKS and KKR will both finish on 15 points, bringing NRR into play. Assuming PBKS score 200. win by ten runs, KKR will need to win their two matches by a combined margin of 72 runs to go past PBKS on NRR. A smaller margin will allow PBKS to finish higher on the points table.
Chennai Super Kings Played: 13, Points: 12, NRR: -0.016 Remaining matches: GT (a)
CSK need several results going their way to take fourth place. They need RR and PBKS to lose their last games, and for KKR to finish on no more than 13. If those results do happen, then CSK can go past RR as their current NRRs are very close: for CSK to finish ahead of RR, the combined margin of those two results - RR's defeat. CSK's win - needs to be 25 runs (assuming a first-innings score of 200).
DC's run rate is far too poor for them to even be a threat: even if CSK win by just one run. DC need to win by more than 200 runs to go past CSK's NRR.
Kolkata Knight Riders Played: 12, Points: 11, NRR: -0.038 Remaining matches: MI (h), DC (h)
KKR can qualify without depending on NRR if they win their last two matches, and RR and PBKS lose theirs. If RR win, then KKR are eliminated, and if PBKS win, then both will be level on 15 points. As mentioned above. if PBKS win by ten runs, KKR will need to win by a combined margin of 72 runs (assuming scores of 200 batting first each time) to go ahead of PBKS.
Delhi Capitals Played: 13, Points: 12, NRR: -0.871 Remaining matches: KKR (a)
RR's win has effectively ended DC's campaign. Even if all other results go in their favour - PBKS, CSK. KKR all stay below 14 - and DC beat KKR, the margins required to go ahead of RR are too huge. The sum of the two result margins - RR's defeat. DC's win - will need to be around 230 runs for DC's NRR to go past RR's.
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