Thank you so much for all of your brilliant questions, I’ve really enjoyed answering them,. some of them have given me plenty to mull over in the final hours of the campaign!
My colleague Josh Halliday. I will be at the count tomorrow night, so please do follow our coverage for the latest updates from Makerfield.
I hope that at least some of my predictions will prove to be correct! We should find out in the early hours hours of Friday morning..
FiniteMonkey asks: I have a question - is there any evidence that the Restore candidate actually exists?
double quotation mark Hannah: I haven’t personally met her! But then I haven’t been given any time with Andy Burnham during the campaign either,. I have met him many times before, so I know he definitely does exist.
I have noted that there appear to have been fewer public-facing events during this campaign, for example hustings. We’ve also seen less from the party leaders; it stands to reason that Keir Starmer would remain absent,. I sure Burnham would probably prefer it that way, but we’ve also seen a lot less of Nigel Farage during this campaign than we did in Gorton and Denton.
irreverentnurse asks: When do we get the results?
double quotation mark Hannah: We’re expecting a result around 4am - 5am,. we may have an indication earlier than that. With Gorton and Denton it was clear that the Greens had won a good couple of hours before the declaration.
ADH1969 asks: How much does the Labour party membership have over who is elected leader of the party? In other words how is the voting split: what percentage is it MPs, unions and ordinary members?
double quotation mark Hannah: While there used to be voting blocks in Labour leadership elections, the voting system changed in 2015,. is now one-member-one-vote. This includes MPs, who only have one vote, so can be largely outweighed by the membership. Both Labour party members. members of affiliated unions are able to vote in the election, but need to opt in first – and each person can only vote once, even if they are a Labour member and also a trade union member. However. MPs do still have a significant role to play, as candidates need the support of 20% of MPs to launch a leadership challenge. (Or if a leader resigns they need the support of 20% of MPs. plus 5% of constituency parties, or 5% of affiliates, such as trade unions. This was increased from 10% of MPs in 2021. when the option to vote as a registered supporter was also scrapped.)
IscoBusquet asks: Q 1: Are Reform campaigning on local issues at all in Makerfield?
Q 2: Is it really as close as it looks? In previous byelections since 2024 tactical voting was seemingly completely underestimated by polling, especially Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton.
double quotation mark Hannah: 1. I have definitely noticed Reform shift to more local issues throughout the campaign. The illegal waste dump is a big issue in Makerfield, as are neglected high streets,. towards the end of the campaign, we’ve heard a lot from Reform about issues like fly-tipping, illegal waste dumping, and holding businesses like takeaways accountable for litter.
2. Election experts I’ve spoken to have said that Labour should win it,. the mood in the Labour camp in these last few days has definitely seemed optimistic, while the Reform side from what I’m hearing is more downbeat. However, nobody I’ve spoken to is anticipating an easy win, and it may be very close.
I actually think we didn’t see much tactical voting in Gorton. Denton – I live there and from speaking to people locally, I don’t think either Labour or the Greens had successfully convinced people on any large scale that they were the tactical vote to beat Reform. I think the Greens won here simply because they were more popular. However, you’re absolutely right that it was a factor in Caerphilly.
I think we’re definitely seeing evidence in Makerfield of Green. Lib Dem voters lending their voters to Burnham, so I think it will play a big role in this election too. (And what the evidence suggests is that Restore voters are not as likely to do the same for Reform, which will also help Labour.) I think those tactical voters have already been factored into a lot of the Makerfield predictions though, which suggest that Burnham will win,. with Reform not too far behind.
RichienotsoRich asks: What is your prediction in terms of turn out. what difference could large versus median vs small make to the outcome?
double quotation mark Hannah: I don’t like making myself a hostage to fortune by predicting anything,. I think that turnout will be relatively high. Turnouts are often lower in byelections than general elections. Burnham ally Lucy Powell was elected in Manchester Central in 2012 on a turnout of just 18% – the lowest since World War Two.
In the Gorton. Denton byelection the turnout was I think 47-48%, which was roughly the same as at the general election. In Makerfield in 2024 turnout was a bit higher at 52.5%,. I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout was similar tomorrow – maybe even higher, as this byelection has been so high profile.
If I had to say, I’d suggest a higher turnout will benefit Burnham as I spoke to quite a few people who had said they hadn’t voted last time,. would be voting for him on Thursday.
Alexis2782 asks: Would it be a better tactic for Burnham to wait until the Mayoral Election to launch a leadership bid?
double quotation mark Hannah: Would it damage Burnham’s leadership chances if he was in the middle of a leadership campaign with Reform winning his old job?
Whereas waiting would mean any loss to Reform would only have Starmer’s fingerprints all over it.
That’s a really interesting question, and you make some very good points. It is quite difficult to answer what his intentions may be. Team Burnham remain incredibly tight-lipped about their plans post-Thursday. It has been suggested that he may until Labour Party conference time, in the Autumn.
I can totally see the wisdom in it for him to wait a few weeks or months,. also logistically, he would be expected to be present during the mayoral campaign, and so it would be difficult for him to fight both at the same time.
However. as Wes Streeting has talked about launching a leadership bid as early as next week, the decision may be taken out of his hands…
ndl4321 asks: If Andy Burnham wins. becomes an MP how quickly does an election have to be held for the new Mayor of Greater Manchester?
Following on from that, what is the likelihood that Labour might not win that election?
double quotation mark Hannah: We’re expecting it to happen pretty quickly,. there has already been a date floated, which off the top of my head I think was 30 July 30. So we’re pretty much planning to go straight from one byelection into the next if Burnham wins tomorrow. If a mayor has policing powers (as opposed to mayors with separate police. crime commissioners), they are not allowed to also be an MP, so Burnham would have to resign pretty much straight away, triggering the byelection.
British politics is so unpredictable at the minute. I would never dare to even try to predict an election result! However, I think the accepted wisdom is that Reform would be Labour’s biggest challenger. Reform are likely to do well in a lot of the outer boroughs like Tameside, Rochdale, and Wigan. However, my understanding is that Manchester city council has the biggest electorate by quite some way,. while there are parts of the borough that vote Reform, there are more progressive voters here.
Labour has reintroduced the supplementary vote system for mayor elections. which was scrapped by the Tories, so that will give Burnham an advantage. If no one candidate wins 50% of the vote in the first round, second preference votes will then be counted. I would expect that the Greens in particular would do well in a mayoral election, particularly in south Manchester,. I’d imagine a lot of Green voters may be willing to second preference Labour to stop Reform.
I think Labour will need to choose their candidate carefully, as personality politics is so important these days. I know that the party is already war-gaming and taking the threat from Reform seriously. It will be an interesting contest…
IscoBusquet asks: Has anyone asked Count Binface his opinion?
double quotation mark Hannah: I must admit that in this election, I have not. (Although I have interviewed him previously when he stood against Rishi Sunak in Richmond at the last general election). I must try harder next time!
MistakeNot asks: I’ve heard it described that Burham represents the soft left of the Labour Party. what does that mean these days?
double quotation mark Hannah: The soft left has always been harder to define in Labour politics,. rather than referring to a specific faction, it can really mean anyone who is neither hard left (who were formerly known as Corbynites), or the more right-leaning “Blairite” or “New Labour” wing of the party. Obviously these terms are linked to previous leaders. are now quite outdated, but broadly we could say “democratic socialists” for the hard left and “social democrats” for the Labour right. The “soft left” tends to be used for anyone and everyone in the middle.
The situation is perhaps complicated by the fact that Keir Starmer was previously seen as soft left, but his policies in government have often been more right-leaning, for example on immigration,. cracking down on protest, which I think makes it even more hard to define these days.
However, with Burnham it is perhaps a little easier. He has been an advocate for electoral reform, which is an idea that has been historically popular with the soft left,. soft left ideas like bringing transport under public control are also aligned with Burnham – one of, or perhaps even his most – popular policies as Manchester mayor has been to set up the Bee Network, bringing public transport under central control and bringing down fares.
Burnham’s “Manchesterism” brand of politics is perhaps a really good example of “soft left” politics – devolving power away from Westminster. public ownership of essential services,. capping the price of basic necessities to deal with the cost of living; but also being friendly to business. All of this probably sits somewhere between free-market New Labour, and more radical Corbynism.
PHHemel asks: Should we worry that ‘shy Reformers’ may skew poll results? In some previous elections the ‘shy Tory’ effect meant that the Tory vote was higher than expected.
double quotation mark Hannah: Polling is by no means an exact science, and pollsters have got it wrong many times. It is of course a possibility, but I have seen Reform voters are generally quite happy to nail their colours to the mast, talk to me about why they’re voting Reform etc.,. they’re probably even more happy to share their views with a pollster than with a journalist. So I wouldn’t necessarily be expecting it in significant numbers – but I could be wrong!
StanEthel asks: There is a correlation between left behind, disadvantaged voters and support for Reform and Restore. These people’s lives will be worse under a rightwing regime
Why have the left lost these people?
double quotation mark Hannah: I think it is a mix of factors; part of it was complacency, as we saw in Scotland, where Labour lost to the SNP,. the North East, where they lost to the Tories in 2019. Makerfield is also a former mining community, so has something in common with those North East seats. I really don’t think there’s any such thing as a safe seat anymore, for any party,. I think Labour perhaps took those votes for granted for too long. Also, I have heard a lot (not just in this constituency, but others with similar demographics) “well we’ve always had a Labour MP. nothing has got any better” – so even if Labour aren’t in government, people place a lot of stores in who they have actually personally voted for.
However. I also think it is a lot to do with the fact that people’s lives have got worse; it is harder to see a GP, bills have gone up, social housing waiting lists have got longer. Parties like Reform. Restore have done a good job of pinning the blame for that on other people, (often immigrants), and I think people who are struggling to pay the bills and have seen their area decline may be looking for someone to blame for that.
I think if the left want to win back those voters they need to convince them. voting for a progressive party will make their lives better. We have seen Labour pass some important legislation that may work towards this; eg. on workers rights,. renters rights, but I think while so many people are struggling with the cost of living, and see public services as lacking, that message hasn’t really filtered through yet.
IscoBusquet asks: Has there been much controversy locally over councillors being photographed next to a poster saying “I would Rather vote for Jimmy Savile than Labour”?
double quotation mark Hannah: I have seen some controversy over it locally, it is in very poor taste. I think a lot of people are quite outraged by it – but that outrage seems to be mostly coming from people who are opposed to Reform anyway. I don’t know whether it will cost them any votes.
I believe the councillor who posted it has faced some backlash, and may have removed her social media profiles.
Perhaps a sign of the age we are living in with so many AI-generated images floating around, I’ve seen a lot of people asking “Is this real?” I believe some Reform politicians had said it was a fake,. later retracted that.
VirgilHilts asks: If Reform win is it over for Andy Burnham? And if Labour win is it over for Sir Keir Starmer?
double quotation mark Hannah: If Andy Burnham doesn’t win tomorrow night. I think there will be a lot of soul searching for Labour, because effectively it will mean that no Labour politician is able to beat Reform in areas where Reform are strong. The Reform candidate was not particularly strong,. there were plenty of negative stories about his online posts in particular, so with a fairly weak Reform candidate, and a very popular Labour candidate, if Reform still win, that will surely be crisis point for Labour.
Wes Streeting is already talking about launching a leadership challenge as early as next week,. I think a Reform win would give him the confidence to do that, and also other MPs the incentive to support him, so I think Keir Starmer would be in serious trouble if Burnham loses.
As for Andy Burnham, that one is a bit harder to foresee. I’d imagine he’d slot back into being Manchester mayor, at least for now, but what his next move would be,. whether he’d try again for a (safer) parliamentary seat, or whether he’d choose to step away from politics altogether, I just don’t know.
Veltatecla asks: If Burnham loses tomorrow. continues as Manchester’s Mayor will the loss, and the standing in Makerfield, affect his popularity in Manchester?
double quotation mark Hannah: My instinct is no. I think people who live here. like Burnham will be more inclined to blame Nigel Farage or Keir Starmer if Burnham loses, rather than Burnham himself. There is some recently polling out that shops his popularity ratings have dropped nationally since May (I think by about 6 or 7%), but he’s still the most popular Labour politician pollsters asked people about,. in Manchester it still feels like he’s very popular, and people still approve of his record as mayor.
However, I think what might be more difficult for him is if he loses, carries on as mayor for a bit,. then wants to stand in another parliamentary byelection. I have no idea whether or not he would want to do that, but if he did, I wonder whether people would perhaps then lose patience,. question his commitment to the role of mayor…
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