Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has posted this on social media.
double quotation mark We look forward to the Makerfield by-election. Reform will throw absolutely everything at it.
Wes Streeting has quit his cabinet role as health secretary. called on Keir Starmer to resign as prime minister after days of speculation.
But Streeting did not launch his own challenge to trigger a leadership contest. so what could be next for Starmer’s government?
And has he left the door open for Andy Burnham? Lucy Hough speaks to the Guardian’s deputy political editor, Jessica Elgot.
Zack Polanski did not register to vote in this month’s local elections because of the heightened intrusion. safety risk faced him, according to the Green Party.
The Green leader is now in talks with the police. local authorities about registering to vote anonymously, the party told the Guardian.
Polanski has been under pressure since admitting he may have failed to pay the correct council tax while living on a houseboat moored in east London. He has faced mounting questions over whether it was his primary residence.
The party said on Thursday that Polanski lived on the houseboat for just under four years. something which it said came with “unconventional practical considerations, including whether council tax is included in mooring fees.” He was now seeking clarity on whether he owed anything was committed to paying that immediately. His living arrangements had been “in flux” in recent months. he had recently moved into a rented home, said the statement, which sought to address claims that the party had misled The Times when it had told the newspaper that Polanski rented a room at another address where council tax was included in the rent and stayed on the boat only “occasionally”. “We issued a rapid response to an unexpected query in the middle of a busy local election period in. we disclosed some facts before we had the full picture,” it said. The statement went on: “Since becoming leader Zack has been subject to extreme. distressing press intrusion, including antisemitic cartoons being published about him, and journalists doorstepping family members.” “Zack has also been the target of antisemitic and homophobic abuse, with two people arrested in relation to abuse directed towards him. One consequence of the heightened intrusion. safety risk he faces was that Zack did not register to vote in the most recent local elections.” While MPs and councillors are protected under Operation Ford and Operation Bridger, UK policing initiatives designed to protect democratic processes by securing elected officials against intimidation and harassment, the party said that its leader does not benefit from this protection either as a London Assembly member nor as a national party leader. This was subject to conversations with the Metropolitan Police and is under review.
The favourability ratings of the current party leaders and senior Labour politicians.
As the drama unfolding at Westminster, at Holyrood 129 newly elected MSPs were sworn in to begin their duties, with a notable multilingual effort from the Lib Dem’s Yi-Pei Chou Turvey who took her oath in Mandarin, French. English.
Newbies - this term sees the largest number of never-before MSPs since the parliament started in 1999 - have been going through an intensive orientation with Holyrood staff ‘buddies’ since Monday. had a chance to relax in the garden lobby with family members today.
But many remarked on how insistent the parliamentary authorities had been that remote working. voting, a hangover from COVID times, should be limited with a focus on being in the building together.
While SNP members wore their traditional white rose button hole, a nod to nationalist Hugh McDiarmid’s famous poem, while Reform opted for heather. the Greens a bright pink gerbera.
While Keir Starmer’s authority as prime minister feels terminally undermined after calls from MPs. departing ministers to step down, he remains inside No 10 – for now. So how, and when, might he be removed? Here are some possible scenarios.
The Scottish parliament has elected a Scottish National Party rebel as its new presiding officer. after he stood against the party’s favourite for the role. Kenny Gibson. one of Holyrood’s longest serving backbenchers, won in the final round by 74 votes to 54 gained by Claire Haughey, who had been backed for the post by senior figures close to John Swinney, the first minister. One of the early favourites. the Liberal Democrat MSP Liam McArthur, who last week held Orkney with 70% of the vote, was knocked out during the second round in what was a secret ballot, which is very rarely used at Holyrood. It is thought Gibson won support from the Conservatives and Reform MSPs, and that other SNP MSPs backed him too. It is thought Labour and Scottish Green MSPs initially backed McArthur. Another SNP MSP, Stuart McMillan, was knocked out in the first round with only six votes. Gibson was latterly the popular convenor of Holyrood’s finance. public administration committee and had delivered the most engaging and detailed pitch in a candidates’ hustings on Wednesday; he had promised to allow MSPs greater freedom and to stop debates being “dull”.
There are various election websites now that will produce a forecast for individual constituencies, based on current polling. what what is known about the demographics of those areas. They suggest that, in a normal byelection, Makerfield should be an easy Reform UK win.
Here are the figures from the Nowcast model run by Election Maps UK.
And here are the figures from Britain Predicts, the model run by the New Statesman.
double quotation mark For Makerfield, Britain Predicts says..
On the PM programme, John Curtice, the BBC’s election expert, also said that winning Makerfield would be tough for Burnham. He explained:
double quotation mark If we look at what happened in the constituency back in 2024. Labour at 45% while only 13 points ahead of Reform.
If you compare that with the majority that Labour had in the Runcorn constituency in 2024. which of course, Reform won from Labour in the byelection last year, there Labour’s lead in 2024 was 35%.
[Makerfield] a constituency where two thirds of people voted leave,. that is a very strong signifier of the kind of place that is likely to vote Reform.
And of course, this is part of Wigan. And Reform did well in the local elections in Wigan.
In short, if Mr. Burnham stands. he wins, he will certainly be demonstrating an ability to reach parts of the electorate most Labour politicians seem to struggle to reach.
But there must be a serious risk. even he will not be able to withstand the tide of Nigel Farage’s Reform.
On the other hand, the constituency election modelling does not make any allowance for candidate popularity. And Burnham has been exceptionally popular as Greater Manchester mayor (he had 62% support in Makerfield). And he would be running an insurgency campaign – as, in effect, and anti-Starmer candidate, not a pro-Starmer candidate.
That’s all from me for today. Nadeem Badshah is taking over now.
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has posted this on social media.
double quotation mark We look forward to the Makerfield by-election. Reform will throw absolutely everything at it.
Andy Burnham has issued a statement saying why he wants to be the next MP for Makerfield.
double quotation mark Over the last decade, I have been challenging [the failure of Westminster] from the outside. building a new and better way of doing politics. We have built Greater Manchester into the fastest-growing city-region in the UK. put buses back under public control, introducing a £2 fare cap to help people with cost-of-living pressures.
However, there is only so much that can be done from Greater Manchester. Much bigger change is needed at a national level if everyday life is to be made more affordable again. This is why I now seek people’s support to return to parliament: to bring the change we have brought to Greater Manchester to the whole of the UK. make politics work properly for people.
Millions are struggling and they need the Labour government to succeed. It has already made changes to make life better for them in its first two years. After this week, we owe it to people to come back together as a Labour movement, giving the prime minister. the government the space and stability they need as the byelection takes place.
Pat McFadden, the work. pensions secretary, was being interviewed on Radio 4’s PM programme when the news about Josh Simons dropped. He warned:
double quotation mark One thing I have learned from politics is that MPs don’t get to pick their successors. it doesn’t work like that.
McFadden would not say whether or not he thought Labour would. or should, try to block Andy Burnham from being the candidate in Makerfield. He cited the fact that Burnham’s resignation would mean Labour needing to fight a mayoral campaign in Greater Manchester (one reason given by the party to justify blocking Burnham when he wanted to be MP for Gorton. Denton). But he said the decision would be one for Labour’s national executive committee.
He also implied there was no inevitability about Burnham winning. He said:
double quotation mark I think Andy is a hugely talented person, I’ve known him not just for years. for decades. I have enormous respect for him in his role as Greater Manchester mayor.
We can have all sorts of desires in politics. when it comes to electoral politics in the end, quite rightly, it’s the voters who decide.
In his open letter to his constituents. Josh Simons repeats many of the points he made in his shorter statement on social media. (See 5.19pm.) But he fleshes them out in a bit more detail.
This is what he says about why he thinks Labour is not delivering “the urgent, radical, brave reform we need”.
double quotation mark Since I was elected, I have seen that Westminster. Whitehall are so often a barrier to getting things done – even as my own party is in power.
The truth is, complacency has become a rot. The establishment is so far from the realities of your lives. too many tweak a failing system just to stay in power. As our world gets more insecure and our economy flatlines, Westminster stays stuck.
It does not have to be this way. There is a different future for our towns – where there are good local jobs, we reindustrialise. back the trades, young people can afford to stay and build a life here, our town centres and parks are places we want to spend time in, and our kids inherit something better than what we did.
But the route to this future requires breaking with what we have today. We need to shift the power that is stacked against places like ours. As I have said, I do not believe this government is delivering the urgent, radical, brave reform we need. We need a new direction.
This is what he says about why he is stepping aside for Andy Burnham.
double quotation mark I believe that Andy Burnham can provide it. These towns are Andy’s home. He grew up and raised his children here and he has fought for us all his life. He stood by me to secure flood defences after the Platt Bridge floods. He demanded that the Bickershaw dump get cleaned up – and got results. Andy is from us and for us.
I could not stand here. tell you that our politics is broken and things need to change, then stand in the way of supporting that change. That is why I have decided to put you, the people I represent, and the country I love, first.
That means stepping aside as your MP for Makerfield to make way for a leader who has the radicalism, energy,. immense courage to meet the moment. A leader who is authentic, honest, and trusted, who says what he believes and does what he says. Someone who has the track record of delivering for working people, building alliances,. using the talents of colleagues from every part of the party. That is Andy.
This is what he says about his personal commitment to the town.
double quotation mark I want to be clear: I am stepping aside but I am not stepping away. Our home is here. I will be fighting to save Ashton Library, clean up the Bickershaw dump, secure flood defences and health provision in Orrell and Hindley Green, and deliver new roads. I will be a thorn in anybody’s side who stands in our way.
And this is what he says about why his constituents should vote for Burnham.
double quotation mark If you place your trust in him, we will restore our towns to the places they should be, rip up the existing system,. build a new one that puts you at the heart of it. With Andy, I will fight for that, and for you, every step of the way.
Simons also set out his case for why Keir Starmer should be replaced in a long article for the Times at the weekend.
Josh Simons. the former Cabinet Office minister who is MP for Makerfield, has announced that he is resigning to free up a seat for Andy Burnham.
In a post on social media, he says:
double quotation mark For decades, Westminster has overseen the managed decline of towns like mine. We have talked big, then acted small, stuck in a politics of incrementalism that cannot meet the moment. We have lost the trust of those our party was built to serve.
It is my unwavering belief that nothing short of urgent, radical, courageous reform will make a difference. That must start with a change in leadership.
Today, I am putting the people I represent. the country I love first and will be resigning as MP for Makerfield. I am standing aside so that Andy Burnham can return to his home, fight to re-enter Parliament,. if elected, drive the change our country is crying out for.
This has not been an easy decision. This is my family’s home, where only a few weeks ago, doctors. nurses at Wigan Infirmary saved our newborn son’s life.
But we all must make choices. in recent days I found myself with a difficult one: defend the status quo or step forward and act.
I have made my choice. I am in politics because politics is how you change lives for the better. My party has one last chance to do that: deliver for the people. places I represent, drive economic growth, secure our borders, reform our state and politics, and change a status quo that is not working.
That is the fight. I believe Andy is the one to lead it.
Here is his letter to constituents.
Simons has a majority of 5,339 at the last election.
Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, is being interviewed on the PM programme. Asked when a new health secretary would be appointed, he said it would come “pretty soon”.
Downing Street has published Keir Starmer ’s reply to Wes Streeting’s resignation letter.
Starmer says he is “very sorry” that Streeting has quit, and he thanks him for his work with the NHS.
On the election results, Starmer says:
double quotation mark Last week’s local election results were extremely tough. I know many colleagues saw good friends lose seats. Everyone in our party is acutely aware that our opponents are more dangerous than ever before. They are a real threat to the values we care about, to the communities we represent. to the country we love.
It is incumbent on all of us to rise to what I see as a battle for the soul of our nation. As part of that we must deliver on all ofthe promises we made to the country. including our promise to turn the page on the chaos that was roundly rejected by the British people at the last general election.
I am truly sorry you will no longer be sat at the cabinet table helping to transform our National Health Service. But I have no doubt you will continue to play an important role in our party for many years to come. I hope we can work together to show that Labour in power can address the problems our opponents exploit, can install hope where they want despair,. can bring people together where they want division.
This is more conciliatory than letters of this kind normally are after a hostile resignation.
Sinn Féin, the SNP. Plaid Cymru have held a meeting at Westminster to discuss what they describe as “a new era of cooperation between Scotland, Wales and the north of Ireland”.
For the first time since devolution, the administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are all led by nationalist politicians. This has been seen as a step towards making the break-up of the UK more possible – even though there is no prospect of imminent votes on separation in any of those countries.
In a statement after the meeting, Michelle O’Neill, the first minister in Northern Ireland, said:
double quotation mark We agreed to continue working together in common purpose to deliver for our people. their right to national self-determination.
People are increasingly looking beyond the constraints of Westminster and towards a future where decisions are taken at home.
O’Neill was meeting Dave Doogan, the SNP leader at Westminster, and Liz Saville Roberts, the Plaid Cymru leader at Westminter.
The SNP said “a new era of cooperation between Scotland, Wales. the north of Ireland” was discussed at the meeting. Doogan said:
double quotation mark Last week’s elections were truly historic. Scotland, Wales and the north of Ireland are now all led by first ministers who are committed to independence. For people watching around the world, there is no clearer sign that Westminster’s time is up.
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