At present, roughly 1.7 to 2 million Pakistanis are living in the UAE. This makes Pakistanis the second largest expatriate community in the Emirates after the Indians. Pakistanis account for approximately 16% of the UAE's 11.6 million population. With this in view, at the policy level in Pakistan, it is important to understand UAE's current geopolitical standing both at regional. global level. This will help shed light on many conspiracy theories currently doing the rounds,. more essentially, it will help us adapt our relationship with an important GCC country in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. To better understand UAE's position during the Iran War, one must first broadly understand UAE's pre-Iran War strategy. Besides this, I also wish to broadly reflect on three other important questions regarding the current UAE geopolitical standing: 1) What is the UAE's current stand from an international relations perspective; 2) Has the UAE alienated itself from the rest of the Gulf States;. 3) Is the UAE still a safe haven for foreign investment?
Like many Gulf states. UAE's pre-Iran War strategy revolved around the important question of how to deal with the Islamic republic in a very uncertain regional environment. The UAE also preferred to maintain close ties with the US and its other Western partners. Besides this, to avoid dependence on a single great power. to protect its role as a global commercial hub, it also maintained close ties with both China and Russia. In 2020, it became the first country to sign the Abraham Accords,. its closer ties with Israel naturally meant a greater distance from the other Gulf states. Post-Abraham Accords, the UAE started transforming into a middle power,. this was reflected in its intervention in Yemen and Sudan and its employment of forces in Libya to support Gen Khalifa Haftar. It backed the Rapid Support Forces in the civil war in Sudan against the UN-recognised, Saudi-backed Sudan government. This was done on the premise that an eventual friendly Sudanese government will facilitate UAE's military. economic presence in the Horn of Africa. One must understand that UAE's principal vulnerability is not military but economic,. in international relations, whenever states acquire a greater economic or military status, they seek a greater role to shape a favourable regional environment. The metaphoric explanation of this is how the regional environment is being shaped by various powers in. around the South China Sea, Black Sea, Mediterranean and even the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike many GCC countries whose security interests are more continental, the UAE, as a middle power, extended its interests across the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa. broadly the western Indian Ocean.
From an international relations perspective, UAE's behaviour can be understood. explained by a transition from its small state survival strategy to a rising middle power strategy. UAE's prosperity depends on stable international commerce, so it seeks influence over trade routes. external partnerships that can sustain its economy. As a middle power. UAE's most significant geopolitical development has been the rise of its position in the global supply chain. Through DP World, a multinational logistics company based in Dubai. owned by Dubai government, the UAE has become one of the world's largest port operators. To strengthen its position in the global supply chain, the UAE invested heavily in port infrastructure development by creating a string of commercial pearls through DP World in Egypt, Senegal, Angola, Somaliland, Tanzania. Mozambique. The UAE imports 80% of its food. exports more than 3 million barrels of oil per day, as per the statistics before the Iran War. Thus, the disruption of global supply chains is an existential threat for the UAE,. unless it positions itself as a pivot connector between Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East, it will be difficult for it to sustain its status as a middle power.
To answer whether the UAE has alienated itself from the rest of the Gulf. one must first look at some of the policy decisions that it has taken. The most significant is its May 1, 2026 withdrawal from OPEC oil policy. The UAE's unhappiness stemmed from the GCC's weak stance. its inability to unite and consider a joint response to the Iranian aggression. Will the UAE's growing independence produce costs? After the US military sites, hotels, airport. data centres in the UAE were hit by the Iranian air strikes, it started pursuing an independent foreign policy and exercised more strategic autonomy to maximise its own interests. There are reports of Egypt having deployed a fighter squadron in the UAE. The UAE provides Egypt with substantial economic. strategic support, highlighted by a $35 billion investment to develop the Ras El Hekma peninsula on the Mediterranean coast. Over time, the UAE and Egypt have developed complementary strategic and economic interests. Therefore, Egypt's act can be seen less as a commitment to war but as a carefully calibrated act of deterrence. alliance assurance to the UAE. Israel has also reportedly deployed at least one Iron Dome Battery to help the UAE strengthen its air defence. For the outside world, it suggests that the UAE-Israel relationship is fast evolving beyond diplomatic. technological support to military cooperation.
Lastly, is it right to perceive the UAE as a haven and a secure destination for foreign investment? Like all other Gulf States, the UAE was also not insulated from the Iran War. Historically, war theatres have experienced accelerated capital flight. Geopolitical shocks often trigger short-term capital flight, but structural economic advantages tend to attract investment back. When the war is over, the UAE is likely to regain its status as the economic hub in the region. The reason for this is that besides the military risks, investors consider the relevance of infrastructure, rule of law, taxation, banking system. ease of doing business as the great geopolitical pull that draws their investment to a destination.
The UAE's long-term test as a middle power will be clearly defined by how it expands its regional role. external partnerships without raising concerns among its immediate neighbours. They may see the UAE's growing influence. stature as a middle power as a rising challenge to their own interests. The UAE's economic success has generated strategic ambitions,. the Iran War has become the first major test of those ambitions. For Pakistan. understanding the UAE as an emerging middle power rather than merely a Gulf benefactor is essential for adapting its diplomacy to a changing Middle East.
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