From 42% to 5.26% - how Scotland's World Cup hopes are fading

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Scotland hopes on the brink following defeat against Brazil

In just over 24 hours. Scotland's chances of reaching the World Cup knockouts for the first time have dropped from 42% to just 5.26%.

They require four teams to finish third in their groups but have a worse record than them -. results elsewhere have not helped Steve Clarke's side's hopes.

Losing 3-0 to Brazilin their final group-stage game dealt a substantial blow to their chances as they only managed to pick up three points from the group stage. whereas four would likely have sent them through.

Worse is the impact of the extent of their defeat. It has left Scotland with a goal difference of -3. which makes it trickier for them to finish with a better record than many other third-placed sides.

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Scotland's World Cup hopes on brink after 3-0 defeat by Brazil

What each team need to make World Cup knockouts

First,South Africa beat South Korea 1-0to snatch one of the top two places in their group. meaning South Korea - who have a better goal difference than Scotland - dropped to third.

After that, Ecuadorproduced an unexpected 2-1 victoryover Germany to finish third in their group with four points. seal a spot in the last 32.

Sweden thenheld Japan to a 1-1 draw,also qualifying from third place with four points.

Scotland were down to an 6.89% chance of qualification after that, according to Opta,. are now down to 5.49% after Paraguayplayed out a stalematewith Australia which suited both sides.

Those results leave Scotland sitting eighth out of the 12 current third-placed sides. on the brink of missing out on a knockout spot.

If teams in the third-place standings finish level on points, the rankings are then decided by goal difference.

That means Scotland will need to hope that at least four third-placed teams do not manage to reach three points. or they do so with a worse goal difference than them.

As it stands. there are four teams ranked below Scotland who have only played two matches, while there are two others who are level on points with a game to play.

There are eight groups left to play, and Scotland need four third-placed teams to have a worse record than them.

It means they need a minimum of four of the following scenarios to play out:

Group I:Senegal and Iraq to draw.

Or Iraq to beat Senegal by no more than two goals.

Group H: Uruguay to lose to Spain.

Group G:Iran to lose to Egypt.

Group L:Croatia to lose to Ghana by at least three goals.

Group K:DR Congo v Uzbekistan to be a draw.

Or Uzbekistan to win by no more than three goals.

Group J:Austria and Algeria are on three points and a draw would send both through.

Scotland need Algeria to lose by two or more goals, or Austria to be beaten by at least four goals.

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